Emergency Planning



2012-08-19; Four Essentials

Here we are coming up on the peak of hurricane season. I stumbled across this web page from Allstate Insurance. In a nutshell it says that the four essential emergency supplies that you need to stock up on are;

  1. Fuel
  2. No-Cook Foods
  3. Lights and Batteries
  4. Water

No argument there!



2012-07-04; Road Food

This post will cover food preps for emergencies, factoring in both a "bugout" scenario and shelter-in-place scenario.

When emergencies loom, its a natural instinct for people to run to the grocery store and stock up. What people buy in such situations can be amusing. In areas that normally have little or no snow in the winter, an impending snowstorm often results in supermarkets being cleaned out of milk, bread, beer, hot chocolate, and toilet paper. That doesn't really add up to a healthy diet. Plus, if ice takes out the electrical power lines serving your neighborhood, that hot chocolate mix isn't going to do you any good unless you have an alternate means of boiling water. So what factors should you consider when buying emergency supplies? Here are some considerations:

If your main emergency threats occur during warm weather, there's no point in having several loaves of plain white bread on hand. As soon as the power goes out and the A/C stops, that bread will start turning to unpalatable mush. Likewise, how long will that gallon of milk last in 95 degree heat? I don't see the point of dodging hurricanes or tornadoes and then getting a bad case of food poisoning. Your emergency food stores should not need cooking, in my opinion. Electricity and possibly natural gas may be out, and fire is pretty risky when the fire department cannot come. Do keep in mind that stuff like canned soup can be eaten cold if necessary. There's a strong temptation to go heavy on comfort foods like canned chili, beans, Spam, etc. I used to do that, but now I think its a bad idea. Your sodium intake will already be spiking, and then you're adding abnormally salty food (especially Spam). Plus, you may end up in close quarters with others, likely without A/C, and eating gassy foods that will probably cause loose bowels. That latter point dovetails in with a future post on toiletries and first aid kits.

What I recommend in terms of foot storage management is to keep a separate food box, and replace its contents annually. Since I live on the edge of hurricane country, I try to remember to replace my food preps annually in June, which is the official start of hurricane season in Virginia. The food items in the box are moved into my kitchen cabinets and consumed as part of normal operations. I use a permanent marker to write the year and month of purchase on each item. Most boxed and canned food has a "best by" date stamped on it somewhere, but those markings can be hard to read and its a ton of work to back out when it was purchased (and thus when it should be replaced).

Here are some photos of the current contents of my food box;

food 1


Above are the "road food" items that I can eat while driving. Beef jerky, dried fruit, M&Ms, granola bars, cookies, and candy that won't melt. In my humble opinion, M&Ms are the ultimate emergency candy. They don't cause a mess in the summertime, don't freeze and split in the wintertime, and are easily dispensed from a bag. Observe that there are some peanut butter sandwich-type cookies in those Ziploc bags. They've been tested in summer heat and don't degrade. I have removed them from their original packaging and put in several quart-sized Ziploc bags, and then re-bagged two gallon-sized Ziploc bags. This protects them from going stale (and bug infestation). Before starting the truck and heading down the road, I can take one bag of cookies and put it within reach of the driver's seat. Note that some food items don't have a re-sealable box or bag, so bringing a box of quart-sized Ziploc bags is wise.

An added benefit of the beef jerky is that you can break it up or cut it up and add it to instant soup and bouillon, if you have the ability to boil water. That will add some protein, flavor, and texture.

Note that the granola bars also cover breakfast, and provide a few vitamins. Also note the little plastic container of Mentos chewing gum balls. This is a good way of keeping your teeth somewhat clean in abnormal circumstances. I like that kind of package because it doesn't involve all sorts of fussy packaging (i.e. litter), and can be easily manipulated while driving. Likewise, the package of LifeSavers candy will help keep your breath tolerable.

food 2

The above photo shows lunch and dinner food, along with some silverware. Note that all of the soup cans have an easy opening top. It is smart to bring a can opener or multitool (i.e. a Leatherman multitool), but  try to avoid buying canned food that requires a tool to open. These foods provide carbs, protein, fats, and some minerals and vitamins. Not a lot of fiber, unfortunately. Note that I have a synthetic washcloth that I can use to clean the silverware. Also, one of the knives is a typical dull table knife, but the other one is a small chef's knife. Its always smart to have a real knife for cutting up food. You may end up dropping anchor somewhere that you can buy fresh groceries on a daily basis. The lid of that plastic tub can be used as an impromptu cutting board for tomatoes and the like.

food 3

The above photo shows dried and canned fruit, and powdered drink mixes. I tried using the small lunch-sized "cup of fruit" containers, but I found that they just weren't airtight enough and would spoil after a few months. Canned fruit is a great source of Vitamin C and fiber. For drinks, I generally prefer sports drinks like Propel rather than Gatorade. Gatorade is both sugary and salty, which is great if you are playing football in the summer but otherwise not so good. Propel has some vitamins and uses artificial sweetener. Note that I've since replaced those boxes of Propel mix. Those boxes have little plastic tubes of mix, sized to make a 16 fluid ounce drink. Much cheaper than buying bottled Propel, though obviously you'll need a source of potable water and a reusable drink bottle.

food 3

The above photo shows food-related items kept in the food box. The empty plastic tub can be used to house and protect one day's worth of driving food. The quart-sized Ziploc bags are useful for storing food in an airtight fashion. Paper towels are obvious, and some kitchen-sized trash bags should help keep your vehicle and whatnot clean. I probably should add some sort of "wet-naps" or something for hand cleaning, and wiping down the steering wheel and other touch surfaces that I might get sticky food residue on. In previous years I had a plastic container of those antiseptic hand wipes, but they dried out rather quickly.

food box

Here is a photo of my food box, ready to go. Keep in mind that I am preparing for just me; if you have multiple ravenous teenagers, you have a challenge an order of magnitude larger. The box itself is a Rubbermaid ActionPacker, I forget which size. I'll guess that it is an 18 gallon box; I'm not sure if they still make that particular size. They are nice, but have gotten really expensive in the last few years, even when Walmart carries them. Observe that the lid is quite thick and is designed to take a load, so the box won't collapse if stacked with other boxes and crates. This means you can use it, carefully, as a seat if you find yourself in a camping situation. They are lockable, with two padlocks. Its wise to leave some room in your food box, in case you are able to add to it on the road. And make sure you can comfortably lift and carry it when it is full. If there is any doubt, go to two smaller containers. Note that canned food is really heavy; after all, it is essentially canned water, and water is over 8 pounds per gallon. In a future post I will cover my "camp box" which contains non-food items. That box is also a Rubbermaid ActionPacker, probably a 24 gallon model. Were it not for the expense involved, I would be tempted to replace the two large boxes with six 8-gallon ActionPackers just to make things more convenient. The main advantage to two big boxes is that I can quickly tie them down in my truck bed if I need to; I plan to avoid doing that due to the risk of theft. Plus, I'm skeptical that they will keep their contents totally dry in a heavy rain with gusty winds.

You may be tempted to simply use a cardboard box for your food stores. I am against that, for several reasons. One is simply that most cardboard is crappy stuff, and will break down under load, especially in humid weather. It will definitely break down if it gets rained on, or if some container of liquid splits open and soaks the bottom. And thirdly, cockroaches love corrugated cardboard. Not only can they eat the glue that sticks the layers together, the little air channels are used by female cockroaches to house their young. So go with wood, plastic, or metal if at all possible.

I have a big truck, so this size of box is no big deal. If you drive a compact or subcompact car, I think you'll find that you'll need to break up your food stores into smaller bunches and pack them into nooks and crannies in your vehicle. Still, I think its wise to keep your emergency supplies centralized in your home; when you pack your vehicle, you can break things down into smaller, packable bundles. And that brings me to one of the more important points. The shelf life of food depends very strongly on the storage conditions. The "best by" date assumes that the food is kept at a moderate, constant temperature; i.e. somewhere between 65 and 75 degrees, and fairly constant. There's a temptation to keep emergency supplies in the garage, attic, basement, or garden shed. I think this is a bad idea. If at all possible, keep your food supplies in your "conditioned space", i.e. where your normal interior heated and cooled air is.

Lastly, observe that I haven't covered drinking water and drinks yet. That is a major topic by itself, that I will cover in a future post.

I haven't done the math yet, but in 2012 prices we're looking at maybe $40 for the storage box, $30 for the durable goods (plastic tubs, silverware), $10 for the non-consumables (paper towels, Ziploc bags), and under $100 for the food. Amusingly, the beef jerky is the pricy element. The non-consumables will last one or more decades, so on a dollars per year basis we're talking about less than $10 per year. The consumables seem expensive, but using my system you'll eat them when they get rotated out of your food box and into your normal daily diet, so your expenditures will be offset by lower grocery bills otherwise. Contrast this with just driving away with your wallet; eating out 2 or 3 meals a day will get brutally expensive.



2012-06-06; The Percentage Game

Looking at prior disasters, and having a basic understanding of human nature, one thing that becomes obvious is that authorities become concerned with statistics rather than individuals. If an official is dealing with a crisis which may result in a death rate of 10%, he/she will be overjoyed if actions can reduce that rate to 1%. In modern life, we tend to go along with the belief that every person is unique, special, priceless, etc. And we are used to businesses and government agencies dealing with us as an individual. It appears to me that such conditions disappear in crises.

What does that mean? In the context of emergency planning, the main point is that you should think about and accept the idea that in such circumstances, both private individuals and government workers are going to treat people in bulk. Hopefully this leads into planning to take care of yourself, rather than relying on someone else to take care of you. The mayor and governor may be thrilled to keep casualties down to 0.1% or 0.01% of the population, but you have the incentive and opportunity to keep your own personal casualty rate down to 0% via planning and decisionmaking.



2012-06-06; Private versus Public Shelter

When disasters hit, one resource that is usually available to some extent is that of public shelters. Its not uncommon for local governments to turn high school gymnasiums into public shelters, using folding cots or mats for bedding. You probably recall that in the wake of the Katrina hurricane, residents of New Orleans who stayed in town were urged to go to the Superdome. That was almost certainly the worst-case scenario; 20,000 people stuffed into only a few acres, little or no power, a partially compromised roof, weak law enforcement, no health care, etc. The opposite outcome was the use of what was then called Qualcomm Stadium, home to the San Diego Chargers NFL team, to house the refugees of the 2007 wildfires. That disaster and response was remarkable in how effective local government and private organizations were in dealing with thousands of refugees. That outcome was not accidental, as the 2007 wildfire response enjoyed reliable electrical power, water, and sewage; and the city had experienced a rehearsal of sorts due to wildfires in 2003, during which refugees descended on an unprepared stadium.

But even in smaller cities, there are many problems that can occur in public shelters. From what I have read, theft is pretty common; this is particularly important if you have critical medications, as theft of prescription drugs is now a top priority of thieves and burglars. And it doesn't matter whether your meds can provide a "high" or not; if its in a prescription bottle, its gone. Another thing to consider is the loss of personal freedoms. You simply won't be allowed to go where you want to go, or do what you want to do. Most Americans will find that intolerable and extremely stressful. Another thing to consider in an open-area shelter is that you will be exposed to all sorts of infection. Put a few hundred people in close quarters in one big room, with only one or two working restrooms, no hand soap or paper towels, etc. and its not hard to imagine colds, various influenzas, bacterial and fungal infections running wild. Lastly, if you are the responsible type and have canned food, water, paper towels, toilet paper, etc., you can expect it to be confiscated and "shared". This is no big deal if you have money to spare, but if your house is gone and you can't get at what's left of your checking and savings accounts, what you've brought along may turn out to be a substantial portion of your new net worth.

So the morals to the story are:

Doesn't the first approach sound a lot easier?


2012-06-01; Quick, Off-The-Cuff Observations on "Bugging Out"

Some important points for those planning to bug out in advance of a storm;



2012-06-01; Quick, Off-The-Cuff Observations on "Bugging In"

Note the numerous problems with bugging in, described in the hurricane stories presented in the links below. Flooding, debris-blocked roads, downed power lines, complete lack of fuels, violent crime, looting, etc. My conclusion is that the vast majority of people would be better off bugging out. Some people did pretty well surviving hurricanes Katrina and Rita using a bug-in approach. AFAIK, they were all in rural or exurban areas, away from Interstate freeways and major highways, and where their neighborhoods had an existing community and residents who were responsible and well-prepared. Not many of us live in such conditions!

One of the themes that recur in post-hurricane stories is that of keeping a low profile. I think that's very hard to do for the average person, much less the average family. As an example, there is someone who lives down the road from me that has a generator configured to auto-start after power failures. I am going to guess that the homeowner has some medical condition that requires an electrically powered machine to run 24/7. When there have been power failures at hours when there is little road traffic, that generator can be heard from a quarter mile away. If you're one of the few folks in the neighborhood that has long-running lanterns of any sort, it will become pretty obvious. Being one of the few who has prepared for disasters can attract all sorts of problems.

There is a local town that lies on the water, and is on land that is very low (within its city limits, I think the highest point is only about 10 feet above sea level, and mostly about 5 ft.). Some years back when a tropical storm passed through, the storm surge fortuitously arrived during a relatively low tide, so there were few issues of flooding (aside from the usual consequences of 3+ inches of rainfall). But there were still serious problems in many areas due to downed trees. Some trees squashed otherwise unharmed houses, other trees blocked roads. There were several hundred people who could not leave their neighborhoods until the authorities came, many days later, with heavy equipment to cut up and move massive oaks and pines that blocked the roads.

And as a mental exercise, imagine you're in some subdivision, cut off from the rest of civilization by a blocked road. The temptation for some of us is to break out the chain saws and try to solve the problem ourselves. But chain saws are seriously dangerous, and if you manage to cut yourself seriously, how are you going to get to the hospital? I've done my fair share of cleanup work after storms, and I can tell you it is risky business. I've very leery of doing it when its not guaranteed that the doc-in-the-boxes and hospitals are open, or that the ambulances are running.

Speaking of safety, Stihl, Inc., maker of highly regarded chain saws, sells a chain saw safety DVD for $5 (http://www.stihldealer.net/videolibrary/). If you own or otherwise use a chain saw, you should definitely buy this DVD.

2012-06-01; Some Definitions

Okay, now that I've scared you, time to get into the details. Here are some commonly used terms you'll encounter both here and out on the Wild Wild Web.

Bug Out - to evacuate in anticipation of some bad event or condition.

Bug In - to remain in place in anticipation of some bad event or condition.

Shelter In Place - same as Bug In.



2012-06-01; A Shot Across The Bows

June is considered the beginning of hurricane season, so I'm going to start writing a little bit on emergency planning issues. We are all exposed to the usual highly condensed advice put out by local newspapers and TV news organizations, but I want to drill down a bit further. It is my belief that the main problem with emergency planning (or disaster planning, if you will) is peoples' irrational adherence to bad assumptions. In other words, a problem with mindset, rather than resources or technology.

The mindset problem has been made obvious in the wake of several natural disasters. Wildfires out in the western US, and hurricanes in the southeastern US, have caused deaths among people who decided to hunker down rather than evacuate. Most, if not all, of the casualties had one or more opportunities to evacuate, but chose to stay home, apparently believing either that the threat was overblown or that they were tough enough to survive it. Folks who do decide to evacuate often have a misunderstanding of how that's going to go. There can be a huge difference between a short road trip on a long weekend, and being part of an evacuation of tens or hundreds of thousands. So I am going to provide links to some reading material that presents some extremely ugly, but real world, testimony on what can happen in the aftermath of hurricanes. Readers beware; some of the situations and scenes described can be really ugly. And that is the point; in the spirit of "hope for the best, expect the worst" I am exposing you the reader to the worst. Partly to motivate you to make preparations and plans, and partly to prepare you mentally in case you find yourself in extremis one day.

Post-Katrina story

Given that the above story has been published only on bulletin boards (AFAIK), the above link will probably rot. To find it in the future, try the search terms "Katrina Metairie Birmingham Lafayette generator tri-fuel fire requisitioning".

Hurricane Katrina - Labor Day 2005

LISTENING TO KATRINA

Thoughts On Disaster Survival